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Strong Overnight Storms Hit Conakry, Total Lightning Network Supports Forecasts

September 23, 2013

23 September 2013, 12:00 UTC: Very intense late night thunderstorms developed along a sea breeze front near Conakry just after midnight today. The Guinea Total Lightning Network began tracking these storms before 1 a.m. and began tracking the intensity and motion of them just ESE of the city. Meteorologists were able to quickly determine that the storms were tracking toward the city and were increasing in intensity rapidly through their analysis of lightning rates and lightning cell tracks.

Below is a video playback of the entire night’s events:

First replay – lightning strikes (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground)

Second replay – storm cell identification and tracking

Third replay – Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts (DTAs)

Meteorologists were also able to reference the hourly updating ENcast to verify forecasts for these same storms. Lightning data feeding into the forecast algorithms were showing nearly 100% chance for storms with intense rainfall likely over the next 2-3 hours. Images below show the forecasts leading up to the event. Ultimately, the storms rolled through the city between 2:30 and 4:00 a.m.

Guinea ENcast Thunderstorm Probability Forecast

Image shows the hourly forecast for thunderstorm probabilities for Conakry, Guinea. Thunderstorm probabilities were high for the period the storms moved across the city.

ENcast Rainfall Probability Forecast

Image shows forecast probabilities for rainfall by hour for Conakry, Guinea.

ENcast Hourly Rainfall Forecast

Image shows spike in forecasted rainfall expected during the forecasted thunderstorm passage.

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